If you live in a country like US , you probably know at-least one person who claims to always win in a casino and one person who always looses. What you might infer from is that the winner has somehow managed to Game the system,maybe there is a way to win in a casino. Keeping luck aside ,probability says that you will never win over a long period of time
So here is why:
Every time you bet on anything in a casino,the chances of you winning are always,slightly lower than the house. Lets talk about roulette
Roulette your payout ratio is 1:35 ==>If you bet 1$ on a number and it comes,you stand to win 35$.But then did you ever notice that the roulette has 2 extra slots 0 and 00. What are they doing there?
These slots basically decrease your probability of winning .Similarly assume that you bet on Red , the probability of you winning is = 18/38 =47%. This means that over a ling period of time you will win 47% of the time and lose 53% of the time
If the casino did not have the extra 0 and 00 slots the probability would be 50/50 hence 0 profits
What about your friend who bids on a particular number based on previous roulette results? He/she claims that if you have been getting red for the past 6 times,its very highly likely that the next number will be a black. Well tell him/her to take maths classes again.
There are 3 problems with this assumption
1. Both events are independent: You basically cannot make any prediction based on last results
2.Probabilty only works for large numbers:You really cannot make any judgement based on 10-20 results.
3.Probability plays a role before any result has come rather than after.All previous spins have already happened,there is no probability attached to it anymore and hence has absolutely 0 effect on upcoming result
Probability states that if you play a certain game X number of times you might lose suppose 10 times. While playing the game if you have lost 10 times and its X-1 number turn , you under NO circumstances assume that the next bet will win . All previous events have happened and have no effect the current result.
SO this is it. In a long run, if your friends are not stupid and play by all the rules,both will lose money
How to have fun in a casino after you have read this bitter truth
well don’t consider Casino as a gamblimg place,but view it as a fun place. The money you lose is basically your entry ticket or entertainment cost.
Keep an upper limit and lower limit. Something like ” i stop playing the moment i lose 100$ or Win 100$” might be useful
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